Predictive Implications of Space Weather on Quantum Network Functionality

Quantum communication networks leverage the unique quantum-mechanical properties of photons to enable secure communications and advanced sensing capabilities. Precision distributed timing and polarization compensation, which must be maintained within stringent tolerances, are critical for enabling quantum network protocols such as Bell state distribution. Previous studies have demonstrated that environmental factors significantly impact network performance in these critical areas. Motivated by unusual observations during the 2024 total solar eclipse on DC-QNet---a quantum network testbed in the national capital region---this research aims to quantify the effect of space weather phenomena on quantum network performance. In this preliminary study, we analyze daily geomagnetic data, 10.7 cm radio flux, and sunspot numbers as predictors in correlation and regression analyses. These analyses use daily aggregated data related to White Rabbit time synchronization errors from several DC-QNet experiments. Initial results suggest that some space weather indicators, such as radio flux and sunspot numbers, exhibit moderate correlation with time synchronization errors over a single, predominantly aerial fiber optic link. However, higher-resolution magnetometer and X-ray flux data show negligible correlation, even after various data transformations. Additionally, model performance is weak across the board, with general linear model assumptions violated in most cases. These findings demonstrate the complexity of linking space weather fluctuations to quantum network performance and suggest that other environmental or operational factors may play a more significant role.